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(Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events. (arXiv:1710.03216v1 [math.DS])
来源于:arXiv
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual
variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system.
El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern
Pacific increase and upwelling of colder, deep waters diminishes. El Ni\~no
events typically peak in boreal winter, but their strength varies irregularly
on decadal time scales. There were exceptionally strong El Ni\~no events in
1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 that affected weather on a global scale. Widely
publicized forecasts in 2014 predicted that the 2015-16 event would occur a
year earlier. Predicting the strength of El Ni\~no is a matter of practical
concern due to its effects on hydroclimate and agriculture around the world.
This paper discusses the frequency and regularity of strong El Ni\~no events in
the context of chaotic dynamical systems. We discover a mechanism that limits
their predictability in a conceptual "recharge oscillator" model of ENSO. Weak
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