We detect the deviation of the grid frequency from the nominal value (i.e., 50 Hz), which itself is an indicator of the power imbalance (i.e., mismatch between power generation and load demand). We first pass the noisy estimates of grid frequency through a hypothesis test which decides whether there is no deviation, positive deviation, or negative deviation from the nominal value. The hypothesis testing incurs miss-classification errors---false alarms (i.e., there is no deviation but we declare a positive/negative deviation), and missed detections (i.e., there is a positive/negative deviation but we declare no deviation). Therefore, to improve further upon the performance of the hypothesis test, we represent the grid frequency's fluctuations over time as a discrete-time hidden Markov model (HMM). We note that the outcomes of the hypothesis test are actually the emitted symbols, which are related to the true states via emission probability matrix. We then estimate the hidden Markov sequ 查看全文>>