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A cholera mathematical model with vaccination and the biggest outbreak of world's history. (arXiv:1810.05823v1 [q-bio.PE])
来源于:arXiv
We propose and analyse a mathematical model for cholera considering
vaccination. We show that the model is epidemiologically and mathematically
well posed and prove the existence and uniqueness of disease-free and endemic
equilibrium points. The basic reproduction number is determined and the local
asymptotic stability of equilibria is studied. The biggest cholera outbreak of
world's history began on 27th April 2017, in Yemen. Between 27th April 2017 and
15th April 2018 there were 2275 deaths due to this epidemic. A vaccination
campaign began on 6th May 2018 and ended on 15th May 2018. We show that our
model is able to describe well this outbreak. Moreover, we prove that the
number of infected individuals would have been much lower provided the
vaccination campaign had begun earlier. 查看全文>>